Rare Earth Elements in High-Tech Industries: Market Analysis And Forecasts Amid China’s Trade Embargo

Chapter 1     Introduction                                                                    1-1

                  

1.1     Rare Earth Element Characteristics                                           1-1

1.2     Rare Earth Element Resources                                                  1-4

1.3     Overview of Rare Earth Element Applications                           1-9

                  

Chapter 2.   Rare Earth Industry                                                      2-1

                  

2.1     China’ Rare Earth Industry                                                       2-1

          2.1.1 China’s Production                                                         2-1

          2.1.2 China Rare Earth Production Structure                            2-5

          2.1.3 China Rare Earth Consumption Structure                        2-5

          2.1.4 China Export of Rare Earths                                           2-11

          2.1.5 Recent Activities Of China’s Rare Earth Industry             2-17

                   2.1.5.1 Consolidation Of China’s Rare Earth Industry      2-17

2.2    Rest Of World’s Rare Earth Industry                                         2-22

          2.2.1 UNITED STATES                                                           2-26

                   2.2.1.1 Mountain Pass                                                     2-26

                   2.2.1.2  Utah Rare Earth Project                                     2-29

                   2.2.1.3   Bear Lodge Rare-Earth Project                         2-32

                   2.2.1.4   Elk Creek                                                        2-35

                   2.2.1.5   Bokan-Dotson Ridge                                        2-37

                   2.2.1.6   Diamond Creek                                               2-38

                   2.2.1.7   Lemhi Pass                                                      2-40

          2.2.2  CANADA                                                                       2-42

                   2.2.2.1  MacLeod Lake Project                                       2-42

                   2.2.2.2  Hoidas Lake                                                      2-42

                   2.2.2.3  Benjamin River Project                                      2-43

                   2.2.2.4  Douglas River Project                                        2-45

                   2.2.2.5  Nechalacho Rare Earth Element Project             2-47

                   2.2.2.6  Archie Lake                                                      2-53

                   2.2.2.7  Bulstrode Rare Earth Property                            2-54

                   2.2.2.8  Mount Copeland                                               2-55

                   2.2.2.9  Cross Hills Newfoundland                                 2-56

                   2.2.2.10  Kipawa                                                            2-57

                   2.2.2.11  Strange Lake                                                   2-58

                   2.2.2.12  Ytterby                                                           2-59

                   2.2.2.13  Grevet REE                                                     2-60

                   2.2.2.14  Turner Falls                                                     2-62

          2.2.3  SOUTH AFRICA                                                            2-63

                   2.2.3.1  Steenkampskraal Mine South Africa                  2-63

          2.2.4  AUSTRALIA                                                                  2-66

                   2.2.4.1  Nolans Bore                                                      2-66

                   2.2.4.2  Mount Weld                                                      2-69

                   2.2.4.3  Jungle Well/ Laverton                                       2-71

          2.2.5  GREENLAND                                                                2-71

                   2.2.5.1  Kvanefjeld Project                                             2-71

          2.2.6  ARGENTINA                                                                 2-74

                   2.2.6.1  Cueva del Chacho                                             2-74

                   2.2.6.2  Susques Property - Jujuy Province                     2-76

                   2.2.6.3  John Galt Project                                               2-77

          2.2.7  INDIA                                                                            2-78

                   2.2.7.1  Indian Rare Earth                                              2-78

          2.2.8  RUSSIA                                                                          2-79

                   2.2.8.1  Kutessay II                                                        2-79

2.3    Profiles of Mining Corporations                                                 2-81

                  

Chapter 3   Rare Earth Market Analysis                                          3-1

                  

3.1    Overview                                                                                  3-1

3.2    Rare Earth Market                                                                    3-4

          3.2.1  Domestic Production and Consumption                           3-4

          3.2.2  China Production and Consumption                                3-10

3.3     Global Rare Earth Market Analysis                                            3-15

Chapter 4   Impact on Hi-Tech Applications                                     4-1

                  

4.1     Semiconductors                                                                        4-1

          4.1.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-1

          4.1.1.1  High-k Dielectrics                                                       4-1

          4.1.1.2  Polishing Powders                                                       4-9

          4.1.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-12

          4.1.3  Market Forecast of Impacted Semiconductor

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-12

4.2     Hard Disk Drives (HDDs)                                                          4-14

          4.2.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-14

          4.2.1.1  Neo Magnets for HDDs                                               4-16

          4.2.1.2  High Strength Glass Substrates                                   4-19

          4.2.1.3  Polishing Materials                                                     4-19

          4.2.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-20

          4.2.3  Market Forecast of Impacted HDD

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-22

4.3     Displays - FPD/CRT                                                                  4-27

          4.3.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-27

          4.3.1.1  Polishing Materials                                                     4-27

          4.3.1.2  Phosphors                                                                   4-29

          4.3.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-33

          4.3.3  Market Forecast of Impacted CRT/FPD

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-34

4.4     Mobile and Mobile Internet Devices                                          4-39

          4.4.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-39

          4.4.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-39

          4.4.3  Market Forecast of Impacted Mobile

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-40

4.5     Solid State Lighting – LED/CFL                                               4-43

          4.5.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-43

          4.5.1.1  Phosphors for Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs)               4-43

          4.5.1.2  Phosphors for Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)        4-49

          4.5.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-52

          4.5.3  Market Forecast of Impacted LED

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-53

4.6     Green Technology                                                                    4-56

          4.6.1  Technology Impacted                                                      4-56

          4.6.1.1  Rare Earths for Hybrid Vehicle Batteries (NiMH)         4-56

          4.6.1.2  Neo Magnets for Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motors

                   and Brakes                                                                      4-59

          4.6.1.3  Neo Magnets for Wind Turbines                                  4-61

          4.6.1.4  Catalytic Converter for Automobiles                            4-65

          4.6.2  Rare Earth Material Used                                                 4-67

          4.6.3  Market Forecast of Impacted Green

                   Devices/Materials                                                            4-70

          4.6.4  Other Green Technologies                                               4-76

 

Chapter 5.   U.S Strategic Metal Perspective                                     5-1

                  

5.1     The Application of Rare Earth Metals in National Defense        5-1

5.2     Rare Earth Resources and Production Potential                         5-3

5.3     Supply Chain Issues                                                                 5-6

5.4     Rare Earth Legislation in the 111th Congress                            5-10

          5.4.1  H.R. 6160, Rare Earths And Critical Materials

          Revitalization Act Of 2010                                                        5-10

          5.4.2  H.R. 4866, the Rare Earths Transformation Act of 2010   5-11

          5.4.3  S. 3521, Rare Earths Supply Technology

          and Resources Transformation Act of 2010                               5-13

          5.4.4  H.R. 5136, the Fiscal Year 2011 National Defense

          Authorization Act                                                                     5-13

          5.4.5  P.L. 111-84, the Fiscal Year 2010 National Defense

          Authorization Act                                                                     5-14

5.5     Possible Policy Options                                                             5-15

          5.5.1  Authorize And Appropriate Funding For A USGS

          Assessment                                                                               5-15

          5.5.2  Support And Encourage Greater Exploration For REE      5-15

          5.5.3  Challenge China On Its Export Policy                              5-16

          5.5.4  Establish A Stockpile                                                      5-16

                  

Chapter 6    European Strategic Metal Perspective                            6-1

                  

6.1     Assessing Criticality                                                                 6-1

          6.1.1 Geological And Technical Availability                            6-1

          6.1.2 Key Terms And Definitions                                            6-2

          6.1.3 Geological Availability                                                   6-3

          6.1.4 Technological Development                                            6-5

          6.1.5  Geopolitical-Economic Availability                                  6-6

6.2     Results And List Of Critical Raw Materials                                6-7

          6.2.1  Economic Importance And Supply Risks                         6-7

          6.2.2 Future Perspectives On Raw Material Demand –

          Implications Of Technological Change.                                     6-11

          6.2.3 Emerging technologies and raw materials                         6-12

                  

Chapter 7    Rebuilding a U.S. Supply Chain                                   

 

7.1     Non-Chinese Sources of New Rare Earths                                  7-1

7.2     Impact of Price Hikes by Application                                         7-13

 

                                                                                                         

TABLES

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1.1    Selected Rare Earth Element Bearing Products                          1-11

1.2     Rare Earths Elements And Some Of Their End Uses                  1-13

2.1     Rare Earth Prices                                                                      2-16

2.2     Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides – 2010                            2-24

2.3     Global Capacity Of Rare Earth Oxides – 2014                            2-25

3.1     U.S. Rare Earth Statistics                                                         3-5

3.2     Rare Earth Prices                                                                      3-9

3.3     Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves               3-12

3.4     Rare Earth Oxide Capacity                                                       3-16

3.5     Rare Earth Oxide Capacity                                                        3-17

3.6     Rare Earth Oxide Demand-Supply                                            3-18

3.7     Rare Earth Composition By End Use                                         3-26

4.1     Properties Of Rare Earth Ln2O3 Oxides                                     4-4

4.2     Forecast of CMP Slurry                                                            4-13

4.3     Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets                                   4-21

4.4     Market Forecast for Hard Disk Drives by Size                            4-23

4.5     Market Forecast For Ceria Slurry For Glass Disks                       4-26

4.6     Demand of Rare Earths for Polishing Compounts for FPD/CRT  4-36

4.7     Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for FPD/CRT                   4-37

4.8     Market Forecast of FPD/CRT by Type                                       4-38

4.9     Market Forecast of Mobile/MID by Type                                    4-41

4.10   Demand of Rare Earths for Phosphors for CFLs                         4-54

4.11   Market forecast of Backlight LEDs by Application                     4-55

4.12   Demand of Rare Earths for NiMH Batteries                               4-71

4.13   Demand of Rare Earths for Neo Magnets                                   4-72

4.14   Demand for Rare Earths for Automobile Catalysts                     4-73

5.1     Rare Earth Elements: World Production And Reserves               5-5

6.1     Rare Earth Applications                                                            6-9

6.2     Global Metal Production                                                           6-10

 

 

FIGURES

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1.1     Periodic Table Of Rare Earth Elements                                      1-2

1.2     Abundance Of The Rare Earth Elements                                   1-5

1.3     Rare Earth Production Since 1950                                             1-8

1.4     China’s Rare Earth Dominance                                                 1-10

2.1     Rare Earth Proportion And Distribution In China                      2-3

2.2     Production Of Rare Earth Concentrates Since 1998                    2-6

2.3     Production Of Smelting Separation Products Since 1999            2-7

2.4     Production Of Rare Earth Metals Since 1988                             2-8

2.5     Production Of Rare Earth Oxides Since 1998                             2-9

2.6     Consumption Of Rare Earths Since 1990                                   2-10

2.7     Consumption Structure Of China From 1988                            2-12

2.8     Gross Volume Of Exports From 1979                                       2-13

2.9     Gross Value Of Exports From 1979                                           2-14

3.1     U.S. Distribution Of Refined Rare Earth Products                      3-6

3.2     Rare-Earth Price Index                                                              3-8

3.3     Comparison Of Rare Earth Consumption .Between

          China And The World                                                               3-14

3.4     Global Supply-Demand Forecast                                                3-19

3.5     ROW Supply-Demand Forecast                                                 3-20

3.6     REO Distribution By Weight - 2010                                          3-21

3.7     REO Distribution By Revenue - 2010                                        3-22

3.8     REO Distribution By Weight - 2014                                          3-24

3.9     REO Distribution By Revenue - 2014                                        3-25

3.10   REE Composition By End Use                                                  3-27

3.11   Approximate Percentage Content Of Current And

          Prospective Ores                                                                       3-28

4.1     Illustration of MOSFET and Gate Oxide                                    4-2

4.2     STI CMP Using Ceria                                                               4-10

4.3     HDD Drive and Neo Magnets                                                    4-17

4.4     Glass Media Drive Forecast                                                       4-24

4.5     Market Forecast For Neo Magnets                                             4-25

4.6     Illustration of Phosphors in PDPs                                              4-31

4.7     Market Forecast For Neo Magnets                                             4-42

4.8     Traditional Design of a 5-mm white LED                                  4-45

4.9     Scattered Photon Extraction white LED                                    4-46

4.10   Supply Chain for Fluorescent Lighting                                      4-51

4.11   Rare Earths Used in Hybrid Vehicles                                         4-57

4.12   Hybrid Vehicle Battery (NiMH)                                                4-58

4.13   Hybrid Vehicle Electric Motor and Brakes                                 4-60

4.14   Wind Turbine Motor                                                                 4-62

4.15   Supply Chain for Permanent Magnets                                       4-64

4.16   Catalytic Converter for Automobiles                                         4-66

4.17   Forecast of Hybrid Vehicles                                                       4-74

4.18   Forecast of Wind Generators                                                     4-75

6.1     Supply Of Strategic Metals To The European Union                  6-4